Risk: SPE, ORMA, and GAR Calculator

The Risk app is a calculator that uses the SPE and ORMA risk assessment models to determine risks and mitigate those risks. This app was developed as an alternative to the laminated paper card issued to National Park Service staff who complete Operational Leadership training.

The SPE model calculates risk for specific hazards, such as launching or recovering small watercraft or clearing a hiking trail of fallen trees, by determining risk as a function of severity, probability, and exposure. Risk = Severity x Probability x Exposure. You can evaluate its potential impact your activity by the calculated risk score, the degree of risk determined, and the recommended guidance.

ORMA stands for Operational Risk Management Analysis. The ORMA model is a cyclical planning process, meaning that changes to the situation or categories, such as the operating Environment, requires re-evaluation. The purpose of planning with ORMA is to properly determine risk and to mitigate that risk in accordance with the mission.

GAR stands for Green, Amber, and Red. These colors correspond to numerical values of both individual categories of a risk rating and the overall risk. Each element is rated 1-10, with 10 representing the highest risk. Once all categories have been assigned a value, the overall score is calculated, and both a GAR color and recommendation is displayed. Show More